Xinji Energy (601918) 2019 Semi-annual Report Review: Volume Increases and Price Drops in the First Half of the Year, Performance Decreases Slightly in Ten Years

Xinji Energy (601918) 2019 Semi-annual Report Review: Volume Increases and Price Drops in the First Half of the Year, Performance Decreases Slightly in Ten Years

Investment Highlights The company disclosed its semi-annual report for 2019: operating income46.

0 million yuan, up by 0 every year.

88%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies7.

3.9 billion, down 3 each year.

39%, after deduction is 武汉夜生活网 7.

44 ppm, an increase of 13 per year.

17%, equivalent to 0 EPS.

29 yuan / share, down 3 before.

33%.

Coal business volume increased and prices decreased, and coal business gross margin increased and decreased.

8 units.

In the first half of the year, the company’s raw coal output increased by 947, exceeding 3.

81%, commercial coal production is expected to be 807, an increase of more than 2%.

63%, commercial coal sales are expected to be 800, exceeding the rise by 3.

28%.

The comprehensive bid for commercial coal is 472 yuan / ton (-3.

2%), volume increase and price decrease, the company’s coal business income fell 0 year-on-year.

04% to 37.

800 million.

In the first half of the year, the unit coal sales cost was 290 yuan / ton (+13.

1%), operating costs rose 16 ahead of schedule.

8% to 23.

There are three main reasons for the increase in unit cost: First, due to the impact of energy saving and environmental protection inspections, the prices of materials such as local produce, cement, yellow sand, and melon seeds will continue to rise in 2019;Part of the mine roadway was lost and modified, and the company’s existing staff was insufficient. In order to ensure normal production succession, the company introduced expansion units to carry out roadway maintenance, which increased the cost compared to the same period.

Reported average, coal business gross margin decreased by 8.

8 up to 39%, with a unit gross profit of 183 yuan / ton (-21.

2%).

The price of thermal power business increased and the thermal power revenue ratio decreased by 5.

2%.

The company’s consolidated statement of Banji Power Plant (unit size is 2 * 1000MW) has a cumulative power generation of 50 in the first half of the year.

700 million degrees (-7.

0%), 48 electricity sales.

200 million degrees (-7.

0%), kWh excluding tax 0 pounds.

31 yuan (+2.

0%), revenue from power business reached 17.
.

7.5 billion (-5.

2%).
The unit cost of coal rose month-on-month, and the amount of electricity sold decreased month-on-month, resulting in a slight tilt in Q2 performance.
According to the company’s disclosure, the company’s Q1 / Q2 net profit attributable to the mother was 4 respectively.

08/3.

At 31 ppm, the slight decrease in Q2 performance was mainly due to the increase in coal unit cost and decrease in sales volume.

Q2 commercial coal sales increased by 401, an increase of 0 from the previous month.

5%, Q2 commercial coal averaged 481 yuan / ton per ton, an increase of 3 from the previous month.

9%, the average cost of commercial coal in the second quarter of 292 yuan / ton, an increase of 1 chain.

6%, the company generated / sold electricity 23 in the second quarter.

4/22.

200 million degrees, down 14% / 15% from the previous month.

Profit forecast and estimation: We predict that the company’s net profit 重庆耍耍网 attributable to the parent company in 2019-2021 will be 10 respectively.

0/10.

6/11.

10,000 yuan, equivalent to EPS are 0.

39/0.

41/0.

43 yuan / share, currently expected 2.

29 yuan corresponding to PE are 7 respectively.

6, 7.

2, 6.

8 times, maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.

Risk reminders: Macroeconomic growth is slower than expected; uncertainty of administrative reservations; continuous replacement of new energy sources.

Hualu Hengsheng (600426) Series Report 3: Looking at the Cycle Position of the Company from the Industrial Prosperity

Hualu Hengsheng (600426) Series Report 3: Looking at the Cycle Position of the Company from the Industrial Prosperity

At present, Hualu is not at a low position for its main products, but urea is profitable, there is downside risk in the long run, and the market has always been losing money, so the company’s PE will not be at its lowest level in history.

However, we believe that the country as a whole is also extremely abnormally low, and there is a possibility of a large mean return in the future. At that time, the risk of the potential downturn of urea should be expanded, as follows: Investment points Analysis of the 杭州夜网 cause of cholesterol plunge: The supply side is mainly coal-based glycerinThe large-scale expansion and reorganization are due to technological breakthroughs in coal-based glycerin in terms of catalysts and stable operation in recent years. The replacement is stimulated by the high prosperity of the previous polyester industry chain, and projects under construction or with earlier costs have been launched.

On the demand side, downstream polyesters have been impacted by external economic and trade uncertainties in the short term, which has led to a serious imbalance in overall supply and demand, but from the perspective of cash costs, it should also be close to the bottom.

Cereal prices are nearing the bottom: short-term price bottoms are determined by corporate cash costs.

Oil companies can maintain production through the comprehensive profitability of downstream ethylene products, and their ability to withstand the replacement of a single glucose, while the specificity of coal-based plants makes their ability to withstand weaker. If cash is wasted, production will be reduced or suspended with a high probability.

So the short-term bottom price of black people is determined by the cash cost of coal-based sulfuric acid. We estimate that it is about 3,900 yuan / ton (excluding tax), and the tax-included price is about 4,400 yuan / ton.

The long-term price of crude oil is expected to rebound: the current price of grains has excessively touched the cash cost of coal-based production capacity, which is also the worst profit among the downstream of oil-based ethylene. In the long run, there is sufficient momentum for price return.

From the perspective of supply and demand, even if a large number of supplementary supplies are completely released in the future, based on the current oil and coal prices, the equilibrium price of the industry after the reshuffle is expected to return to the central level of 4,700 yuan / ton (excluding tax), which is still close to Hualu.4.

There is room for improvement in gross profit of 500 million yuan.

This is also equivalent to 300 yuan / ton (excluding tax) of the urea’s ability to withstand the decline, which can overcome the potential decline of urea in the future. Therefore, the long-term profit hub of Hualu’s current power generation of 2.5 billion should still be able to be maintained.

Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions We predict that the first EPS of Hualu Hengsheng will be 1 in 19-21.

42,1.

58 and 1.

70 yuan, with a target price of 19 at a 14 times 19 times price-earnings ratio of comparable companies.

88 yuan and maintain BUY rating.

Risks suggest that cholesterol prices are recovering less than expected; fluctuations in product and raw material prices.

China Shipbuilding (600150) Company Dynamic Review: The preliminary formation of the core assembly head of CSC

China Shipbuilding (600150) Company Dynamic Review: The preliminary formation of the core assembly head of CSC

Event: On April 5, the company announced the “Issue of shares to purchase assets and raise supporting funds and related transaction plans”, intending to acquire Jiangnan Shipbuilding, a subsidiary of CSSC Group, and the general assembly of military and civilian ships such as Huangpu Wenchong, and China Shipbuilding International.The company acquired Hudong Heavy Machinery 南宁桑拿 and other assets. After the completion of the company, the company initially became the core platform for the shipbuilding assembly assets of CSSC.

Jiangnan Shipbuilding has a long history and is one of the top military and civilian shipbuilding companies in China: Jiangnan Shipbuilding is one of the oldest military shipbuilding companies in China. It integrates research and development, design and manufacturing. Naval vessels involve large destroyers, submarines and other high-tech warships.Mainly, civil ships mainly involve high value-added liquefied gas tankers, chemical tankers, etc. The numerous equity injections of Jiangnan Shipbuilding this time will make listed companies become the assembly companies of high-end military ships that have yielded to a handful in China.

Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Ship International were placed, and Hudong Heavy Machinery was put out: Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Ship International were the main shipbuilding forces in South China. Huangpu Wenchong mainly engaged in missile frigates, landing ships and other naval vessels.Guangzhou Shipyard International’s main business is container ships, semi-submersible ships, supply ships, medical ships and other special ships, all of which are the core assembly assets of the group. The 2018 performance risk is fully released. At the same time, Hudong Heavy Machinery will be sold out and assembled.China Ship Defense.

State-owned enterprise reform is expected to continue to deepen: CSSC, as one of the first six pilots of mixed reform of state-owned enterprises, has expanded the background of companies with a state-owned enterprise to participate in the company’s market-oriented debt-to-equity swap.Promote the strategic reorganization of shipbuilding and other fields, and continue to promote the professional integration of offshore engineering equipment and other fields.

As a backbone of coastal defense ships and high-end civilian ships, North-South ships are expected to become a platform for the listing of South Ship’s general assembly assets after the completion of this plan, and they are expected to continue to benefit from the deepening of state-owned enterprise reform in the future.

Investment suggestion: According to our model, the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 is estimated to be 17.9 billion, 19.6 billion, and 22.6 billion; the net profit attributable to the mother is 5 respectively.

500 million, 6.

700 million, 9.

700 million, we continue to give the company a “strong recommendation”.

Risk warning: The global economic recovery is less than expected; the recovery of the civil ship market is less than expected; the risk of original fluctuations; the state-owned enterprise reform is less than expected; the restructuring progress is less than expected.

Wolong Electric Drive (600580) Coverage Report for the First Time: Steady Performance of Global Leading Motors Leads New Growth in EV Motor Business

Wolong Electric Drive (600580) Coverage Report for the First Time: Steady Performance of Global Leading Motors Leads New Growth in EV Motor Business

Ping An’s view: The integration of the merger and acquisition business in the early stage is completed, and the layout promotes the company’s performance back to the growth track: The company has acquired and operated well-known motor companies such as the ATB Group, one of the three largest European motor manufacturers, and the domestic explosion-proof motor industry leader Nanyang Explosion-proof Group.Integration, became a leader in the global motor industry that is comparable to Siemens and ABB.

In the past two years, through the streamlining of European factories, the transfer of production capacity to the interior, and the establishment of a global R & D system, the competitive advantages brought by “local manufacturing + global technology” have gradually emerged, and performance has returned to the growth track since 17 years.

In this wave of the global motor industry’s retreat from the west to the east, the company’s market share has continued to increase. At present, the company’s high-voltage motor business ranks second in the global market share, and the low-voltage motor business ranks fourth in the global market share.Beyond Siemens and ABB, becoming the global motor industry

1.

  The high-voltage motor business is looking at the global market, and the demand in the downstream industry is strong: the high-voltage motor industry is a market where technology and scale are equal.Additives for high-margin downstream markets such as global nuclear power and oil and gas.

In 18 years, the company’s global market share was 11%, and it expanded and improved by 3 units, which was only one subdivision gap from the first Siemens.

Benefiting from the rapid growth of fixed asset investment in the oil and gas, petrochemical and other industries and the continuous release of technological transformation needs in metallurgical, mining and other industries, the company’s downstream industry demand is strong. Driven by continued external demand and enhanced internal synergy, the performance is expected to remain relatively stable.Grow fast.

  Improving the energy efficiency standards of low-voltage motors, the switch to high-efficiency motors promotes the increase in product technology and value: At present, 无锡桑拿网 the domestic low-voltage motor market is switching from ordinary energy efficiency levels IE2 to high-efficiency motors IE3. According to IHS predictions, China gradually promotes the IE3 energy efficiency in 2020Levels are implemented as mandatory standards.

Switching to high-efficiency motors and shortening will increase the value of a single motor, replacing small and medium-sized motor manufacturers that will have insufficient technical reserves, and the market concentration will be improved.

The company’s technical strength in the field of high-efficiency motors has been continuously enhanced. At present, IE4 ultra-efficient motors have been launched. The increase in technical barriers and the value of single units is expected to drive the company’s market share and revenue to continue to grow.

  The first to enter the Mercedes-Benz-ZF supply chain, the electric vehicle business is expected to become a new growth point: this year the company obtained a fixed-point letter from ZF drive motor suppliers, predicting the value of the order22.

5.9 billion.

We believe that the company’s initial entry into the international first-tier brand supply chain includes three points: a.

As the largest domestic motor manufacturer, the company has deep technical accumulation in the field of special motors; b.

The company’s global R & D system is easier for international brands to conduct technology docking; c.

In the past, the company has a good delivery record in industries such as nuclear power and military industries that have high requirements on the quality of motors. The company leads the industry in product stability and sustainability, and its supply capacity is far superior to its peers.

As a leading motor company, the company’s competitive barriers built by technology, quality and production capacity have prompted the company to continuously obtain orders from international brands. The EV motor business will become an important driving force for the company’s future growth.

  Investment suggestion: The company’s reorganization has been integrated into internal business through outsourcing mergers and acquisitions, and has become a global leader in motors, with its brand advantages and scale capacity advantages prominent.

We expect that the company’s traditional motor business will continue to maintain better performance growth in the next three years, driven by good downstream demand and increasing internal synergies. At the same time, the company is vigorously developing new energy vehicle drive motor business.It has taken the lead in entering the supply chain of international first-tier brands, and the market space in the future is huge.

We predict that the company’s EPS for 19/20/21 will be 0.

66/0.

75/0.

86 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of PE on October 16 were 12 respectively.

9/11.

4/9.

9.
Covered for the first time and given a “Recommended” rating.

  Risk reminders: 1) The company’s high-voltage motor business depends on fixed asset investment in oil and gas, petrochemical and other industries. If demand in the downstream industry increases, it will adversely affect the company’s revenue.

2) If the prices of major raw materials such as copper, steel, iron and so on rise sharply, it may adversely affect the company’s gross profit margin.

3) The company’s business is affected by international indicators. If the global economy declines, it will adversely affect the business.

Meiya Optoelectronics (002690): Significant increase in profitability 19 years revenue is expected to increase no less than 20%

Meiya Optoelectronics (002690): Significant increase in profitability 19 years revenue is expected to increase no less than 20%
Investment Highlights Event: On April 2, Mayer Optoelectronics disclosed its 2018 annual report and achieved total revenue of 12 in 2018.40 ppm, an increase of 13 per year.33%, net profit attributable to mothers4.48 ppm, an increase of 22 per year.82%.  Performance was in line with expectations, and profitability continued to improve.The company’s revenue and net profit reached a record high again. The growth rate of the profit side clearly exceeded the growth rate of the income side. We judge that the proportion of oral CBCT products with high gross profit margins has continued to increase.30%, has become a strong driving force for the company’s growth.In addition, it is also related to the company’s continuous cost reduction and efficiency improvement and excellent operating management, and gradually achieve a comprehensive gross profit margin54.94% (1 increase per year.73 points.), Comprehensive net interest rate 36.11% (increase by 2.90 marks.), ROE 杭州桑拿网 is expected to reach 20.14% (increase by 2.76 points.), Restored to its highest level in nearly 5 years.  Oral CBCT will be sold directly to 1,224 units, which will make a big start in 2019.Since 2018, the company has held multiple oral CBCT exhibition group purchases. Among them, the Southwest, South China, Beijing and Shanghai dental exhibitions have arranged 60, 259, 285 and 185, respectively, for a total of 1,224.In March 2019, the South China Dental Show re-sold 362 units, achieving a great start in 2019.  The expansion of production capacity is advancing steadily, and the smart factory is about to be capped.In order to meet the production requirements of smart factories, Meiya photodiodes have undergone a comprehensive transformation from R & D, design, and supply, vigorously promoted product engineering, and realized product standardization and replacement from the source.Total company investment 5.According to the latest project introduced by the official website of the US $ 8.5 billion smart factory “new capacity project” and “painting and sheet metal production base project”, the building is about to be capped, and it is expected to be the first to realize the automated production of color sorters.  The operating goal for 2019 is that the long-term revenue is not less than 20%, and the growth rate of expenses does not exceed the growth rate of revenue.The company focuses on the three major areas of agricultural product inspection, industrial inspection, and medical imaging. In 2019, it will continue to tilt resources towards the medical imaging business, and change its operating goal to set operating income growth to not exceed 20%, and the growth of expense indicators not to exceed the operating income growth rate.  Profit forecast and rating: The company relies on its core optical identification technology to continuously innovate, launch new products suitable for agricultural products, industrial products, and medical imaging inspection, and achieve import substitution.We adjust our profit forecast and expect 2019?In 2021, the EPS will be 0.81/0.97/1.15 yuan, corresponding to PE on April 2 of 34x / 29x / 24x, maintaining the “prudent increase” rating.  Risk Warning: The promotion of new products is lower than expected, and the risk of increased competition in the industry.

Debon (603056): self-funded financial management overdue short-term short-term or pressure to be reduced to neutral

Debon (603056): self-funded financial management overdue short-term short-term or pressure to be reduced to neutral

Opinion Focus Investment Proposal On July 15, the company issued an announcement that its holding subsidiary (Ningbo Jiye) subscribed for 1 of its own funds.

6 billion private placement products (Fengsheng Rongchi is stable) were overdue. The fund invested in Shanghai Shangke Holdings’ Fudan Science and Technology Park’s equity income right. Shanghai Shangke promised to repurchase at a predetermined premium, but due to tight liquidity, it did notCan fulfill the contract as scheduled.

The deferred payment part is about 300 million yuan, of which Debang accounted for about half. Shanghai Shangke has more than 10 billion debt-paying assets. At present, Debang has started legal proceedings.

In addition, the company also issued an announcement that it intends to use the centralized bidding transaction to repurchase the company’s shares with a scale of 0.

6-1.

2 trillion, the share repurchase will be mainly used for employee stock ownership plans.

  We downgrade to neutral and cut our target price by 32% to 13 yuan.

The reasons are as follows: short-term sustainability or pressure: considering the worst case, if 1.

A total of RMB 600 million in self-financed wealth management increased impairment losses, accounting for approximately 23% of the net profit attributable to mothers in 2018, which will affect the performance in 2019; the poor macro economy will affect the express business volume, and the cost will increase faster in 2019:The macroeconomic impact of earlier express delivery is more sensitive, and since the beginning of the year, Aneng, Best, One Meter Tick, and Yousu have reduced the express freight rate by reducing the bubble calculation ratio, which has a certain impact on Debang. In 19Q1, it is expected that express income will 杭州桑拿养生会所 decrease by 10%the above.

In addition, the cost of Debang this year is relatively fast, mainly due to the increase of courier and additional costs; In addition, we are still optimistic about the rapid growth of large-scale express delivery and misplaced competition: 1Q19 large-scale express delivery is still more than 50% growth rate, we believe that the next two yearsLarge-scale express delivery will still grow by 30-40%, and through the increase in the number of pieces, the scale effect is also expected to gradually increase.

  What makes us different from the market?

We believe that the uncertainty of Debang’s 1H19 and 2019 short-term results will cause or be under pressure. As we are still optimistic about the high growth rate of large-scale express delivery, it will attract attention and have breakthrough opportunities for intervention.

  Potential catalysts: upside: the gross profit margin of large-scale express delivery improves better than expected; downside: the express business further shrinks, and cost control is not in place.

  Earnings Forecasts and Estimates We lower our 2019/20 net profit by 21% / 22% to 6.

3/7.

300 million.

Currently corresponds to 20.

7x / 17.

8x 2019/20 P / E ratio.

We downgrade to Neutral and cut our target price by 32% to 13 yuan, corresponding to 19.

8 times 2019 P / E ratio and 4.

4% downside.

  Risks Macroeconomic Stall; Weak Consumption; Increased Competition in Oversized Express Delivery

Guangfeng Technology (688007): ALPD laser shows the world’s top downstream market is fully exploded

Guangfeng Technology (688007): ALPD laser shows the world’s top downstream market is fully exploded

Based on its original and industry-leading ALPD laser display technology, core patents, core device R & D and manufacturing capabilities, Guangfeng Technology has become the world’s leading laser display technology company and is widely used in film projection, laser TV, teaching projection, and outdoor engineering.Multiple areas.

In the future, Guangfeng Technology is expected to become the NO in the global laser display field.

1.

Main point of view: Film market: screen addition, projector modification and Barco sailing to drive high-speed growth.

It is estimated that the revenue from the movie market in 2019-2021 淡水桑拿网 will be 7 respectively.

68/10.

49/13.

3.9 billion per year 47.

90% / 36.

57% / 27.

59%.

Home market: Laser TVs meet the demand for large screens in homes and are committed to maintaining high growth.

It is expected that the revenue from the home market in 2019-2021 will be 5 respectively.

20/6.

30/7.

660,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.

61% / 21.

27% / 21.

62%.

Education market: The education informationization & K12 extracurricular training market promotes the steady growth of business education projectors.

We estimate that the company’s laser business education projector revenue will be 3 in 2019-2021.

78/4.

00/4.

7.3 billion, a previous appreciation of 15.

58% / 5.

95% / 18.

11%.

Commercial market: Increasing popularity and multi-scenario drive the company’s laser engineering projector sales to grow rapidly.

We estimate that the revenue from the laser engineering projector business in 2019-2021 will be 1.

17/1.

46/1.

75 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.

34% / 24.

72% / 19.

65%.

Profit forecast: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 will be 2.

48 ppm / 3.

42 ‰ / 4.71 ppm, corresponding EPS is 0.

55 yuan / 0.

76 yuan / 1.

04 yuan, corresponding to 87 on August 15, 2019.

52 times / 63.

41 times / 46.

06 times PE.

In the long run, the company is expected to become a leader in the field of large-screen display scenarios. We give an “overweight” rating with a long-term reasonable market value of 50 billion.

Risk reminders: risks of new technology research and development, intellectual property protection risks, risks of light source leasing business models, risks of unsustainable growth driven by cooperation models, substitution risks caused by breakthroughs in competing channel technologies, and systemic risks.

Guolian (603613): Deep Plow Industry Internet from Information Matching to B2B E-commerce Platform

Guolian (603613): Deep Plow Industry Internet from Information Matching to B2B E-commerce Platform

1) The company relies on Guolian Resources Network to develop platform business and raise funds through IPO5.

The 30,000 yuan company mainly provided information-based yellow pages services at first, and then switched to transaction conversion to provide diversified services.

The company’s main website, Guolian Resources Network, serves small and medium-sized enterprises in various industries; the multiple platforms that it subsequently established serve upstream and downstream companies in the coatings, chemicals, sanitary products, and glass industries.

And finally raised funds in the IPO in 20195.

300 million officially entered the A-share market.

2) The three major businesses of the company are developing synergistically. The current vertical e-commerce platform is the core growth driver. At present, the company is in a state of rapid growth. In 2018, the company’s revenue increased by 84% to 36.

70,000 yuan, net profit attributable to mother increased by 60% to 93.86 million yuan.

The company’s main business sectors include B2B information services, vertical e-commerce and technical services.

Among them, vertical e-commerce revenue accounted for 96% in 2018, and gross profit accounted for 64%, which 武汉夜生活网 is currently the core driving force for the company’s revenue growth.

3) The company’s scale advantage integrates upstream and downstream low-efficiency transformations. In the future, the core advantages of companies developing new categories of industries are reflected in the downstream concentration of the industrial chain. The company uses industrial vertical websites to connect upstream suppliers and downstream manufacturers.The use of long-term framework to stabilize the needs of large customers and suppliers.

Help each sub-industry improve matching efficiency and save procurement costs.

With the continuous expansion of the company’s scale, the company is expected to further integrate the supply chain in the future, form a strong ability to hold down books, and develop new sub-industries based on the platform.

Investment suggestion: The company deeply cultivates the industrial Internet. Relying on the rich unit resources and industrial advantages of the Guolian Resource Network, it continues to connect upstream and downstream customers in low-concentration industries, and ushers in high growth after conversion to a B2B e-commerce platform. It is expected to continue to integrate upstream and downstreamSupply chain, expanding other categories, high growth can be expected.

We expect the company’s attributable net profit for 2019-2021 to increase to 1 per annum.

5 billion, 2.

3.2 billion and 3.

3.5 billion.

Considering that comparable companies of the same type of B2B platform correspond to an average PE estimate of about 58 in 2019-2020.

0X and 40.

2X, the company’s current volume is small and its growth rate will accelerate in the future. The company is given a valuation of 42X PE in 2020, corresponding to a reasonable value of about 69.

32 yuan / share, the first coverage is given an “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: risks such as false information, high prepayments, and the risk of large changes in industrial product prices.

Yili shares (600887): Dairy king multidimensional benefits harvest share repurchases accelerate accelerating value undervaluation

Yili shares (600887): Dairy king multidimensional benefits harvest share repurchases accelerate accelerating value undervaluation

Events: (1) Yili issued a repurchase progress announcement. As of May 31, 2019, the company converted 66,344,323 shares of the company’s shares under a centralized bidding transaction, accounting for 1 of the company’s total share 杭州夜网 capital.

0881% (2) The National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Action Plan for the Promotion of Domestic-Made Infant Formula Milk Powder”, and vigorously implemented the “Increase Quality, Industry Upgrade, and Brand Cultivation” action plan for domestic-made infant formula milk powder.

(3) Yili liquid milk production base is located in Lindian, Daqing, which is the largest liquid milk production base in Northeast China.

Opinions: 1. The rapid advancement of share repurchases, highlighting the expected undervaluation and company confidence. The company launched share repurchases in early April and conducted the first repurchase in early May. Within May, the company has spent nearly 2 billion, and the repurchase exceeded 1%Shares.

About 15 years of repurchase, this repurchase has progressed rapidly, attracting a lot of money before the interim report, which fully reflects the underestimation of the value of Yili’s shares and the company’s long-term confidence in the company’s future development.

In addition, the subsequent equity incentives for share repurchases will promote the continuous organic improvement of the company’s future performance.

2. Domestic-made baby powder is supported, leading enterprises have benefited from increasing concentration. The Action Plan indicates that they are striving to increase the self-sufficiency rate of domestic-made baby powder to 60%.

In 2018, Yili’s infant formula milk retail market share was 5.

8%, the market share ranks first among domestic milk powder brands.

We believe that Yili is expected to improve the advantages of products, brands and channels, absorb the market space vacated by small dairy companies, further expand market share, and become another leading brand of domestic milk powder.

3. Merging overseas confrontation and boycotts will help Yili go to the world. The “Action Plan” will help enterprises that “go global” to establish milk bases and processing plants, and gradually implement overseas alternative boycott tax exemption policies.

Yili initially actively expanded overseas business and strengthened the construction of milk sources. It is expected that the pace will continue to advance, and it is expected to benefit from the pricing of overseas interests and the tax exemption policy.

4. The domestic liquid milk production capacity was built in an orderly manner, and the Yili liquid milk production base settled in Linqing, Daqing, after the “100 billion target” reserve potential. It is expected to reach production in November 20, after the project is fully produced, the annual liquid milk production will be 50 variables.The estimated annual sales income is 5 billion yuan.

The project is the largest liquid milk production base in Northeast China.

In the liquid milk industry, the structural upgrade logic of high-end organic milk is unchanged. The construction of a liquid milk base will help the company continue to increase its industry share in the future and consolidate the place of the king of the dairy industry.

Profit forecast: Considering that the reduction in profitability will bring a certain 杭州夜网论坛 degree of flexibility to profit, and Yili’s excellent management ability, the channel penetration rate is still increasing. We maintain our profit forecast and give the company revenues of 908 and 101.7 billion in 19 and 20 years. NetProfit to 80.

2, 99.

4 billion, eps1.

32, 1.

63 yuan, given 31 times PE in 19 years, the target price is 41 yuan, there are 35.

4% upside.

Risk reminder: industry competition intensifies; raw material prices rise sharply

Hualu Hengsheng (600426): Strategic advantages continue to show that performance meets expectations

Hualu Hengsheng (600426): Strategic advantages continue to show that performance meets expectations

The company released three quarterly reports, and its performance was in line with expectations.

The first three quarters achieved operating income of 106.

110,000 yuan (YoY-2.

19%), net profit attributable to mother 19.
.

1.2 billion yuan (an increase of 24.

55%), of which net profit attributable to mothers was achieved in the third quarter of 20196.

30,000 yuan (YoY-29.

38%, QoQ-9.

60%), the performance is in line with expectations.

Since the beginning of this year, the prices of the company’s products have dropped significantly in the same period last year, and Hualu has maintained its performance. We believe that it is mainly due to its continuous optimization of process equipment and continuous development of potential cost reductions 重庆耍耍网 brought by efficiency.

The urea price shifted in Q3 2019, and the prices of acetic acid and polyol rebounded.

The company’s sales of fertilizers, organic amines, adipic acid and intermediates, acetic acid and derivatives, and polyols in Q3 2019 were 64.

53, 10.

42,5.

36, 14.

58,17.

In 35 months, 2019Q2 sales were 64.

87, 8.

88, 5.

56,15.

62, 15.

68 constant, sales of various products remain stable; fertilizers, organic amines, adipic acid and intermediates, acetic acid and derivatives, polyols and other products in 2019Q3 average prices were 1440, 4914, 7407, 2812, 4524 yuan / ton, 2019Q2The prices were 1547, 4966, 7320, 2458, and 4490 yuan / ton, respectively. Fertilizer prices have improved month-on-month, acetic acid and polyol products have increased, and other products have relatively stable prices.

The cost advantage has consolidated the bottom of the company’s performance, and new projects such as adipic acid and amide have begun to grow.

From the perspective of the company’s overall product prices, it is still basically at the bottom of historical prices. The company relies on the three major coal gasification platforms to interconnect and continue to tap the potential to bring costs down, and it can still maintain a high level of profitability at the bottom of the cycle.

In addition, the company’s amide and nylon new material projects and the quality improvement project of refined adipic acid have begun construction. Technology, design and construction contracts have begun to be changed. Long-term equipment tendering has begun. Water, electricity, gas and other special developments are gradually developing.The project also has a solution, and the future growth point is clear.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: The company’s scale advantage continues to be exerted, and the cycle low still maintains relatively stable profitability. Adipic acid and amide projects have begun a new round of growth.

The EPS is expected to be 1 in 2019-2021.

62, 1.

83, 1.

96 yuan, corresponding to PE, 10, 9, 8 times, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risk Warning: The prices of major products will further decline, and new projects will not progress as expected.